Why Standings Work

The season of horse racing is for the most part over so let's see how the standings fared this year. 2yo Filly - She Be Wild (320) Beautician (275) Blind Luck (200) I think we've nailed the winner of the Eclipse, the hard part is the 2nd and 3rd place horses. The other Gr I fillies didn't do anything else, so while their name will be on the ballot She Be Wild is a mortal lock for the Eclipse. 2yo Male - Lookin At Lucky (335) Vale Of York (240) Noble's Promise (240) Again, we've nailed the winner but finishing out the rest is a little difficult due to the synth/dirt thing with some horses running and not running. 3yo Filly - Rachel (905) Gozzip Girl (350) Stardom Bound (300) Very happy with this outcome, everyone forgets how close Stardom Bound was to being the big 3yo filly everyone was following. She had 2 Gr I Wins earlier in the year, just wonder if time is the big discounter. 3yo Male - Summer Bird (595) Zensational (450) Quality Road (405) I think we've got the first 2, but we left off Mine That Bird who was 4th with 385 points. The difference of 20 points is mostly due to the extra race QR ran, and honestly, other than the Derby Mine That Bird had a middling type year. Quality Road had 3 wins. It's not perfect, but close enough to not throw the baby out w/ the bath water. F&M Sprint - Informed Decision (625) Ventura (610) Game Face (245) Nailed it. The top two were razor thin, and who really knows or cares about #3. Had Ventura pulled off the upset and won one of the races in the open company Turf division it would have gone the other way. Sprint - Zensational (450) Kodiak Kowboy (360) Fabulous Strike (310) This division was weak this year, but Zensational, though he flattened in the BC, was ultra consistent and a star. He is a 3yo after all. The race for this is probably not quite over, but not enough races to make a huge difference. F&M Turf - Forever Together (475) Magical Fantasy (415) Pure Clan (365) I'm not sure where the Eclipse will go. MF did all her work on the West Coast and won, but Forever Together went places and took chances and did ok. The standings favor FT because of the amount of races she won, and if you want to build the sport w/ new fans you want them to get behind that kind of horse, no? Does it go to Goldikova? The TBA needs 3 starts in NA to count points (the whole fan base argument), but if that wasn't an issue she amassed: 508.75 and seems right. Turf - Gio Ponti (720) Presious Passion (500) Just As Well (430) Again, if you have a problem with 3rd I think for the most part if standings were in place you'd see different outcomes as horses would point for challenging races, less ducking, more racing. I think we nailed the top 2. F&M - Zenyatta (715) Life is Sweet (655) Seventh Street (440) Scary part is that had Zenyatta finished 2nd she wouldn't have won the TBA F&M division, and that's a real problem. Not sure what to do as Life is Sweet ran 8 times this year to Zenyatta's 5. I think a perfect solution would be have standings create the top 5 horses voters can then vote on, and/or have standings determine gate choice in the BC. Older Horse - Gio Ponti (720) Einstein (475) Cowboy Cal (350) The top dirt horse ( a horse who has a Gr I win on dirt/synth) was Einstein, but Turf horses also are eligible for this award. What a weak division this year. Jockey - Gomez (4310) Leparoux (4070) Velazquez (2545) Those top 2 put on a show this year. Leparoux even had the lead after some weekends, and it's probably not over yet. HOTY - Rachel Alexandra (905) Gio Ponti (720) Zenyatta (715) Life is Sweet (655) Informed Decision (625) Only 1 male horse in the top 5. Why not? Summer Bird will probably get a look, but I'd say the above 5 were all more dominating in their divisions than Summer Bird, and to me that's what the Eclipse is about. Oh, and why do standings work cause Ed DeRosa said so. As for HOTY and the TBA, in a perfect world you'd weight the different categories accordingly and you'd probably get Summer Bird on the list.

A Level Playing Field

Joe Drape just wrote Here is one vote to make Santa Anita Park the permanent home of the Breeders’ Cup... The European success, however, can largely be attributed to a more level playing field He said the same thing last year with the "level playing field" thing. I heartily disagree. Synthetic does not seem to be a fair surface, and I think the folks at the BC are just lucky that Zenyatta (an American hero now) is masterful on it. What would the print be saying today had a European again won our greatest race? Someone once said, and now I'm stealing it (and can't remember who), "that the essence of American racing is dirt." And yet I don't see one "dirt" name in the winner's circle and barely in any frame. For the record, my feelings on Synthetic surfaces is that I'm pro them for facilities with huge biases (Kee, California) and weather issues, just not for championships, at least not often.

Oh Woes Me

I'm looking at a scrap of paper: R7 - 7/11/1,2,3,5 That is a $4 pick three that would have returned $1700, I didn't bet it, I was too busy pissing my money away on some other lousy bets. I was flat on the day after Friday, but Saturday I just couldn't find the rhythm and wasn't happy w/ my betting. I didn't like California Flag, and that was a mistake, but I loved Dancing In Silks and Crown of Thorns, but thought Zensational would hold for first or second, I liked Vale of York, but thought the post would do in Lookin at Lucky so bet a crazy exacta and came 1st and 3rd (and worse), Tried to key Goldi on top, but didn't like Courageous Cat, loved Justenuff. Loved Furthest Land, didn't hit the exacta (didnt' come close). Singled Conduit in some things but didn't freakin nail the easiest Tri ever. I didn't like Zenyatta, and was proven wrong, though I was 2nd in the late pick 3. I did some GREAT handicapping, but like usual when it comes to actual betting I SUCK! If you had given me $6,000 and forced me to play the pick 6, I'm very confident I could have hit it. And yes this is all whining and red boarding and being a big baby, but whatever a blog is a selfish endeavour. ;-D There's always next year.

A #BC09 conspiracy theory

There is no way the grounds crew at Santa Anita will set the track up like last year. If the Euro's walk out w/ everything that isn't nailed down heads will roll at the BC ltd. I've skewed my handicapping to pressers and front runners, I think you all should do the same unless proven otherwise on Friday. My picks are up at http://bit.ly/2GqfpQ

My Changes to the Breeders' Cup

You don't need to be Greg Avioli to know that something will change next year. Less races, less days, less of something for sure. So, you all already know how I feel about W&YI (Graded stakes = standings = gate choice). Here's what I'd do w/ the schedule. I'd stay with 2 days. The argument of making it a long weekend and creating some sort of lead up to the big day is a sound one. And, one I obviously agree with. The BC is "LIKE" our year end championships, so maybe it's time to move some awards to the day. Day 1: Ladies' Day - Focus on BC, NTRA, and local charities. Give out an annual service award to someone in racing who's given back (Is there already an award? Just move it to this day). Jockey competition for the day. Any way to move the Woolf award to here as well? It would be even better to give out the Jockey Eclipse but it's hard to make people vote once yet alone twice. Juvenile Fillies, Marathon, Dirt Mile, Turf Sprint, F&M Turf, Ladies' Classic Day 2: Juvenile Turf, Juvenile, Turf Mile, Sprint, Turf, Classic I'm axing the Juvenile Fillies Turf, F&M Sprint. Because of this I'd guarantee 5 spots to Fillies and Mares in the Sprint and Juvenile Turf. I'm not cutting more races because I like the idea of a rolling pick-6 bet.

Zenyatta Cynicism

I just think Zenyatta has no chance in the BC Classic and is really only there to lose gracefully. I just get the feeling, call me crazy. But the win streak was SOOOO important that Zenyatta went out of her way to keep it going, and yes she's the champ and someone should come to her to beat her, but... I don't know... It just seems like maybe the connections knew that either BC race would be tough, and a loss is possible when you have a closer (whose winning margins are shrinking), and that losing in the Classic is better than losing in the Ladies' Classic. Am I way off base here?

Working Around Technology

I just heard Twinspires now has the ability to cancel wagers once you've placed them. I know when I first got on 4njbets.com that was my first complaint. I guess all ADW's are the same, but not Twinspires anymore. It's a big difference, and hopefully other ADW's take note (and copy the code). In other Tech news, the TBA has updated their Free past performance search engine. Go check it out (read the instx), and let me know what you all think. thanks!

A Silver Lining

Official Word has come down, I'm a horse owner again, and I'm excited with what went down. At first I thought we owned hip number 24 because Ferris Allen our trainer bought that filly. I was wrong, and in my haste and happiness might have sent out a few wrong signals, but now I'm 110% sure who we own, and it's blowing my mind! I'm now part owner of hip #410 (dam is Greta's Joy) A filly that RNA'd in July at $35,000 and in November at $37,000 for $6,500. This filly has a ton of upside (love that word) She's by first year sire Silver Train who won the Stallion making Met Mile, but the dam is where it gets interesting. Greta's Joy is a direct female descendent of Turn To Talent: Half-sister to blue hen mare Too Bald and Granddam of Broad Brush. You're saying, "Yeah that was 4 generations ago." But this family recently got hot again. Greta's Joy half brother is Surf Cat. Yes, that Surf Cat. So, this filly is the 2nd filly from an extraordinary family. I have a dream filly, and all we paid was $6500 at the sale. Wow. I've experienced the lows of horse ownership. I'm counting on this being anything but. Check out That's Amore, who runs the show.

Sea The Stars

Everyone would love to have Sea The Stars line up in the BC, but what would come of it from a marketing perspective? I understand, and you who are reading this blog understand, it's not everyday a horse puts together a year like StS just had and watching him race would be compelling, but outside of us.... who cares? The Breeders' Cup are trying their darnedest to introduce us to possible starters through Win and You're In, and trying to make it easy for novice fans to get a grip of the sport. You all know I'm a quasi-fan of the idea of W&YI, but again it won't have a chance to succeed if StS comes to America. The NTRA just finished its annual marketing meeting and the next stop is the Eclipse. If StS wins the BC Classic he would be a strong candidate for HOTY. How do you market a horse who made 1 start Stateside as our champion? Does that help the sport grow in America? Some interesting questions, that I honestly don't know how to answer (or at least not change my mind 10 minutes from now).

Safety And Itegrity Alliance

I'm a supporter, I believe in the idea, but..... the reason this was started was to create some good coverage of racing, that there are tracks doing the right thing, and to show that we do care for the animals and people in this business, and to get everyone on the same footing when it comes to these issues. The Alliance does this but.... Keeneland, Saratoga, Monmouth, Del Mar were never the tracks giving the industry a black eye in the first place, and I would bet would have passed the test years ago. Wake me when they get around to looking at Mountaineer. When that track doesn't get approved the thought is players (us gamblers) shouldn't bet there. The trick is.... Mountaineer is one of the cheaper venues to bet as a player.... and seeing that not a lot of discussion has gone on around take out .... good luck getting people not to bet it. When something like this happens and tests the Alliance I'll be on the edge of my seat.

An Offer I Couldn't Refuse

It's easy to compliment businesses and people when things are going well, but the true test of any business is when things out of their control go wrong. Are things swept under the rug? Are those phone calls you used to get weekly now monthly or nothing? Like I said; good times = good communication, bad times = test of the business. I bring this up, because I'm super excited to get back into the business of horse ownership with That's Amore Stable. Our last horse, Higher Authority, was euthanized after complications arose from an ankle surgery. You'd think I'd want nothing to do with horse ownership or That's Amore. It's a 180 from the truth. I could be bitter and pissed off, but I'm not for 1 important reason. I was well informed. Frank at That's Amore on every phone call and email from the start is always more than cautious about talking about future prospects. After Higher Authority got ill i was even better informed. His calls were honest, up front, and to the point. I hoped HA would get better, but I knew what she was up against. Because of that I want another chance. And I want one with That's Amore. That's Amore is possibly starting a new syndicate, and the way it's going to be done could be very interesting for you pedigree fans. The plan is to take X dollars to the yearling sale at Timonium (Afleet Alex was bought here for 75k), buy a horse and have some fun. That's the plan as Frank would lay out, but there are a few extras I'd like to share with you. Shares will be between $3,000 and $6,000 for 5 or 10% of the horse. That price will most likely include all the costs for getting our filly to a race track this summer, so you don't get a bill during the months where not too much is happening, all you'll get is photos and updates. Frank also told me there will be no markup on the horse, that he will only take a $1,000/month for a management fee, which is a steal, and shows how much joy he gets out of owning horses. The Timonium sale is Oct 4-5th so if you're interested in this partnership you have the ability to get your voice heard on what filly is bought. Obviously Frank will make the final decision on what horse and what to bid, but the guy listens to opinions. And is open to all good info out there. This is where it gets fun for you pedigree buffs. I've taken the sale and put the excel sheet online so that anyone can edit it. I've also added a column for the truenick grade, and added a few notes myself. You can edit this sheet as you see fit, don't delete any info, just add to it please, and please be kind to others opinions and the horses themselves, someone loves them. What That's Amore is looking for: A filly whose parents RAN well or whose siblings have started more than a few times. Don't expect to find Ghostzapper at this sale, look for what you think could be a hard knocker. So, if you're interested in helping pick out a horse at Timonium give That's Amore a call or drop them an email as they need to know interest for this venture, then head over to the sheet and start looking. (In my head we get a lot of people interested and can buy a sales topper who goes on to have a career like Rachel Alexandra, but Frank wouldn't want me to say that). Email That's Amore and tell them you're interested: You can call them at 202-253-1048. Or email them : info [at] thatsamorestable.net Who wouldn't want to own a horse with me? A little update: The shares will be priced at $2500 & $5000, it's correct to think you won't know you're exact share until all the collections have been made, but you will be treated like a 100% owner, I can assure you that. Update 2 No management fee and no markup. It'll be a $5000 one-time commission/fee that will be billed over four months, and then a 5 percent income interest.

Would You Let A High School Band Close for U2?

The schedules have been released for the BC , and I'm excited. The closer it gets the more I have I confidence I can take down both Pick 6's on $20 worth of tickets. However, c'mon why card those last races? Friday: 4:25 p.m., $200,000 Las Palmas Handicap, (gr. II), 1 mile (Turf) Saturday: 4:25 p.m., $125,000 Oak Tree Derby (gr. II), 1 1/8 miles (Turf) There's no good rational reason for it. An argument I've heard is that whoever lost in the big race will try and make it back, but if they lost the big race doesn't that mean they're a bad bettor? What are the chances they hit this final race? More likely they lose their huge bet in either classic then lose AGAIN in the final race. So, the taste in their mouth is doubly sour. They lost two big bets and they're talking about a useless Grade II race. If you lose on the big race, at least you leave talking about the big race, no?

Regal Ransom Collects

This will be pointed out ad-naseum as we get closer to the Breeders' Cup, but if last year was the Breeders' Cup Europe edition this year very may well be the Breeders' Cup Arabic edition. Regal Ransom, NO LOOKIN BACK!

Forever Together

Forever Together was last year's TBA F&M Turf horse of the year, and she's probably flying just slightly below the radar again this year, as she's only raced 3 times. She'll be running this weekend, look for a post over at the NTRA tomorrow for a pre-cap of the race.

How Cool Is That

It's not everyday you get thanked by a CEO of a large national organization, but that's what happened today. I'll be writing about the F&M Turf, my favorite race over at NTRA blogs, so don't look for too many updates here follow me over there for the next few weeks. And as always you can follow EVERYONE over at TBAblogs.com Let's pick some winners!

Sacrilege Against Zenyatta

She's not clearly the best Older Filly and Mare on dirt THIS YEAR. If you just look at THIS year, had she not raced last year no one would be forcing a matchup of her vs Rachel Alexandra they'd be talking about a possibly terrifically deep field for the F&M Classic. Zenyatta has won the Vanity, Hirsch and Milady. A great record. I'm not arguing she's the worst F&M this year, I'm just saying she isn't the clear cut best this year. I'll first mention Seventh Street who finished 2nd this past weekend in the Gr I Ruffian over a sloppy track. She's won the Apple Blossom & Go For Wand (gr I's) and finished second in Ogden Phipps and the aforementioned Ruffian. Zenyatta scratched due to a wet track this year, Seventh Street hasn't. Seventh Street also finished 2nd in the Gr II Barbara Fritchie after spotting the field 10 lengths due to a poor start. So, yeah she's pretty accomplished at a few different distances. Life Is Sweet has been a Zenyatta runner up so often, but it's not like she's always getting her doors blown off and when it comes to the BC her family has had success. She's a full sister to Sweet Catomine. Swift Temper has wins from 8.5 furlongs up to 10 and just won the Gr I Ruffian. She's also raced 7 times this year at 6 different tracks. It's been an up and down year, but it's mostly up, and I'm curious about her plans leading up to the BC. So, I'd say it's pretty close at the top right now. Zenyatta is undefeated at her home track in 3 races she won last year... good for her. Meanwhile there are horses having very good years, pushing themselves and racing all under the radar, all with what I'd imagine to be a large chip on their shoulder (if they realized things like this). The F&M Classic will be a great year this year and I hope Zenyatta is odds on, for me she'll be a bet against.

Higher Authority - Gone

I'm sorry to say that Higher Authority was euthanized last night after a battle with some infection after surgery for a non-displaced condylar fracture. I'm glad I met her, and I'm not giving up on ownership (she was the first real horse I felt I owned), I'm just pretty bummed out right now. I would easily trade this for a horse on a farm who can't run a lick in competition. This is horse racing I know, but it sucks when it happens to you. I feel bad to the people really involved with HA, I'm sure they feel terrible plus I'm sure they feel responsible, they shouldn't. I know HA was in good hands from the groom to the ownership structure, I met them all, I don't have any less faith in them today than yesterday. She really was a sweet filly, her nickname was peanut around the barn. Today is a low, hopefully I'll get a high in the future.

Win and You're In

Thanks for the link Mr Paulick, the TBA follows you and another 140 blogs. Did you know I'm no fan of W&YI? Ok, so you knew that, but what I really hate is this whining about how it's not REALLY W&YI (for those that don't pay the original fee or for those that don't supplement.) What those that are whining are suggesting is that no one should really pay into the BC, just go out an win one W&YI race (which are expanding every year) and compete to win a purse that is no longer funded by what they need to be funded by. The chances of a foal ending up in the BC are miniscule, that's why the fee is nominal at birth. A person is already spending 10s of thousands, what's another couple of hundred for a dream? This is where the BC gets most of its funding. Supplements are so high after the fact because people would stop nominating at birth all together if a person be allowed to wait to see if the horse is a "BC" type horse and then nominating for a couple hundred. Everyone would wait, so it makes sense that the supplement fees are as large as they are. For those whiners please suggest how the BC should make money if/when people stop nominating their horses at birth and wait to win a W&YI race (which should prove you have a BC horse).

Track Ratings

HANA finally put out the raw data of it's track rating system. And, I've gone in and put them on a bell curve and weighted everything the same. If a track didn't offer a bet w/ a takeout I put the max in from the group. I gave a 1 to tracks that had things like .10 supers and 0 if not. I guess you could weight it, but it seems pretty close to reality to me. So do you think the bell curve makes more sense? I'm happy to see Monmouth make the biggest jump from 44th to 14th Full Sheet Here

If You Blog Read Me

This is important. Go get a feedburner feed now. There's a new thing out called pubsubhub that is making RSS as close to real time as possible, by getting a feedburner feed you're doing all the work you have to do on your end (which is next to nothing) http://feedburner.google.com/ Put your RSS feed into the box that says burn a feed right this instant Give it a name and an address Keep clicking next; at some point across the top you'll see analyze, optimize, publicize, monetize,troubleshootize. Click on the Publicize Tab, Ping shot is choice down the left hand side. Activate it. Right now it won't help on the TBA homepage but I'm trying to find a programmer who can update the site in this way. Once I get the homepage fixed it will make your posts appear on the homepage almost instantaneous, and right now your readers will get notifications instantly if they are using things like google reader or other services once you update your ping shot. If you already have a feedburner feed the Ping Shot might not be activated, it's isn't turned on automatically, so go double check, and email me at handrideclothing [at] yahoo.com if you have a feedburner feed. This is the next big thing in publishing, want to make sure we're all out in front of it.

Reminds Me Of Ghostzapper - Not A Good Thing

Could there be any more buzz around Quality Road? I think they already painted the canoe. But, for me I'm not that excited about him. I won't take anything away from him: He's impressive with track records and blazing fast speed, but, for me, to be "great" you have to do it more often. I never really was a Ghostzapper fan, and Quality Road reminds me of him from the win streak, to the +110 Beyers, to the anointing him the best 3yo in the country, to me not being that impressed. Some are saying Rachel Alexandra is ducking him by going to the Wood. That's like saying Steven Strasburg dodged Matt Alexander (who hit .383 in the Mountain West last year) by going pro. The buzz literally hurts my head. Ghostzapper ran all of 4 races (3 120+ Beyers) in 2004, and of all the gaudy numbers Ghostzapper put up no one questioned that one. I think number of starts is just as important as best Beyer if not more important. This will be Quality Road's 5th Graded Stakes start of the year, so he's already ahead of Ghostzapper, but I'm just terrified that ol' Todd will take a win in the Travers (which I'm betting against) and train him up to the BC, and the buzz will just continue to build while he doesn't race.

No One Gives Credit

I've seen a lot of people say that Jess Jackson is being greedy for asking the NYRA to up the Woodward purse. Really? The Travers is $1,000,000 Rachel would be the favorite. The Woodward was HALF that, and Jess Jackson asked if NYRA could do something about that discrepancy I'm sure. They made it $750k, still 25% less than the Travers, and nowhere close to being greedy in my book. The connections are running for 25% less than where they could be running, and in a more difficult race (always depends on who shows up, but no filly has ever won the Woodward... anyways...) It's a vicious cycle. The Road to the Triple Crown makes 3yo colts mainstream famous, tracks want to be mainstream important so they'll do everything to lure those 3yo's to their tracks, meanwhile the open races (the more difficult races) get smaller purses because the older horses (and F&M Turf, Sprint, Turf) aren't as mainstream famous. If you want horses staying around longer you need a way to make your older horses more mainstream important, and the money will follow them. Standings that lead to gate choice.

2yo Bandwagon Alert

I want to get this out there before the race is run, and won. I like Thiskyhasnolimit. In June at Churchill downs in a race he finished 2nd all 3 top finishers came back and won. The winner Backtalk is the most decorated of the 2yo crop so far. One month later, over the slop, he got on the lead and opened up. 10 days later he was in Saratoga. This race must have been the target, and since coming to Saratoga he hasn't missed a work and seems pretty consistent in the morning. His second dam is Cara Rafaela, this name might be somewhat familiar as she was the dam of Bernardini. Thiskyhasnolimit is bred on the same sort of cross: Bernardini was by AP Indy, Sky Mesa is an AP Indy line stallion. How he only cost $120k I'll never know, that sounds like a bargain to me. And it'll be a bigger bargain when he gets on the Derby trail today.

Roku Streaming LIve Horse Racing In HD via NTRA.tv

If only. No it's not NTRA.tv but MLB.tv who have figured out that the cable company is on its way out the door.

Horse Racing Fans to Look More Foolish

What you are looking at above is a patent filed by Nintendo for a new game controller: a cushion. And, yes you'll be able to rock back and forth on it and simulate horse racing games. While the above picture looks serene with a young boy enjoying a trail ride the image that comes to mind is more like the gamer on the left pummeling that cushion into submission. Siliconera via Kotaku via Gizmodo